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The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5?0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5?0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. Sporting events and races are also not even, in that some entrants have better odds of winning than others. Presumably, the winner of one such event is more likely to win the next event than the loser. Mambo stud Deuces Wild
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Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died. - Steven Wright [edit] A random event is less likely to occur because it recently happened. Pai gow poker Example: The player originally bets $10 and the dealer shows an Ace. The player takes Insurance by betting an additional amount of $5. Suppose the player's hand is 19. The dealer turns up his 'hole card' after the Insurance betting period is over -- and it's a 10-valued card. The player loses his $10 bet. But the Insurance bet wins, so the player gets 2:1 on his $5 Insurance wager and receives $10 (on top of the $5 which are returned to him). Note that the player came out even (i.e. did not lose any money) on that round. Encyclopedia of Casino Twenty-One Craps
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